🌍 Frontier Markets News, July 10th, 2026

Africa

Pakistan joins US-led push to unify Libya’s rival governments

Pakistan has quietly stepped into mediation between Libya’s eastern and western administrations, two Pakistani sources told Reuters. The move adds new impetus to a US-brokered unity effort that has drawn in Egypt, the UAE, Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. 

One source said Washington was “fully aware and involved” in Islamabad’s role, which began late last year at the request of both Libyan sides.

The Pakistani track follows an accelerating US initiative led by White House adviser Massad Boulos. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Libyan National Army deputy commander Saddam Haftar in Washington on June 29 to discuss unifying Libya’s military, economic and political institutions, according to Al-Monitor. Days earlier, deputy defense minister Abdulsalam al-Zubi of the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity held parallel talks with US officials. 

A draft reunification plan, still under discussion, would install Abdulhamid Dbeibah of the UN-recognised Government of National Unity as prime minister and Saddam Haftar as chairman of the Presidential Council over a transition period. The faction around Haftar’s father, Khalifa Haftar, commander-in-chief of the LNA, controls many of Libya’s biggest oilfields and key infrastructure, and the plan would hand him authority over the budget. 

Burkina Faso taps diaspora bond for state brewery expansion

Burkina Faso has allocated CFA30 billion ($52.3 million) from its inaugural “Patriotic Loan” diaspora bond to state-owned brewer Société Nouvelle Brasserie du Faso (SN Brafaso), Ecofin reports. The funds will bankroll a second brewery in Léguéma, near Bobo-Dioulasso, as the state-owned producer looks to challenge Castel-owned Brakina in a market that produced 3.1 million hectolitres in 2024 but still imports roughly $6.2 million in beer annually.

The disbursement is the first major deployment of proceeds from the bond, which raised CFA151.5 billion against a CFA125 billion target, according to West African Voice Network. The instrument is part of Ouagadougou’s push to diversify financing away from multilateral lenders, mirroring similar diaspora bond efforts in Ethiopia and Nigeria. 

Beyond the brewery, proceeds are earmarked for cement manufacturing and mining efforts. 

South Africa races to restore treasury funding after ratings reprieve

Johannesburg’s mayor Dada Morero said this week that the city would pay creditors R2.6 billion ($146 million) by next week to unlock R3.6 billion in withheld government funding, Bloomberg reports. South Africa’s National Treasury withheld R13.5 billion in equitable share transfers from 69 municipalities on July 7 to enforce fiscal discipline, with Johannesburg the largest single recipient of the cut. 

The city is also in talks to issue bonds to fund infrastructure upgrades, Morero said.

The Treasury move landed days after Moody’s affirmed Johannesburg’s Ba3 issuer rating and revised its outlook to positive, ending a review for downgrade opened in April. Moody’s cited stable operating performance and a moderate debt burden while flagging weaker governance and funding challenges. 

Asia

IMF downgrades Cambodia

The International Monetary Fund lowered its economic outlook for Cambodia on Wednesday, citing the risk that high energy prices will hold down growth and speed up inflation. The lender added that reputational costs stemming from Cambodia’s association with cyberscamming could further weaken its economy.

The IMF said that despite its challenges foreign direct investment in Cambodia remained strong. It urged the country to be more forceful in collecting taxes and to broaden its tax base. 

The fund forecast that Cambodia’s real GDP growth would slow to 3% this year, down from a projection of 4% made in November. Last year the Southeast Asian nation’s economy grew by more than 5%.

Kazakhstan’s top court allows president to seek new term

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev will be able to seek another term in office, the country’s top court ruled on Tuesday.

Tokayev, who took office in 2019, had previously been limited to one seven-year term. The ruling resets the clock, effectively ensuring he will rule for a decade, Reuters reports. 

The decision comes after Kazakhstan passed a new constitution last week that calls for snap elections next month. It is not yet clear if Tokayev will have to run for office or if the court’s decision automatically hands him the position.

Indonesia wins new customers in US and India

Indonesia signed minerals, agriculture and transportation deals this week with India and the largest American plane maker. 

The deals with India came as its Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, visited Indonesia for the first time since 2023. They include a new joint venture between the two countries’ respective government-owned steel giants and a $630 million deal for Indonesia to buy missiles made by an Indian-Russian defense firm, Reuters reports.

Indonesia and India also agreed to strengthen their cooperation on critical minerals and agricultural supply chains. India is a major buyer of palm oil from Indonesia, which is also the world’s largest producer of nickel.

Meanwhile, in the US, Indonesia’s state energy company announced on Thursday that it had struck a deal with Boeing to work on developing sustainable aviation fuel.

Middle East

Positive outlook in GCC FDI threatened by war

A new publication by UNCTAD has found that inbound and outbound GCC foreign direct investment flows increased across the board in 2025, with member states benefitting from strong reserves, large sovereign wealth funds, and their unique position “as a corridor between Asia, Europe and Africa,” AGBI reports. Inflows to the region measured $111 billion, up from $82 billion in 2023 and $92 billion in 2024, but outflows rose to $142 billion from $60 billion over the same period, indicating that the Gulf has become a significant net exporter of capital.

• Geopolitical uncertainty and Middle East war ‘likely to slow growth’ of GCC banks (Zawya)

The region stands out against the global average, which saw an only 6% increase year on year, and UNCTAD found that distribution of flows remained highly concentrated in megaprojects and AI development. That trend favors the Gulf, which represented 7% of all total flows as Saudi Arabia ranked 13th globally and UAE ranked 9th. 

However, the recent war between the US and Iran is expected to materially weigh on the outlook as investors reassess the region’s geopolitical risk premium, which raises borrowing and insurance costs, and GCC states pivot public spending from megaprojects and AI to defense and infrastructure. 

Saudi Arabia to expand alternative export routes

Saudi Arabia is exploring the possibility of significantly expanding its East-West oil pipeline, an alternative export route via its Red Sea coastline that has helped enable exports during the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reports. Built in the early 1980s as a backup, the pipeline has a capacity of seven million barrels of oil per day, with five million earmarked for export. 

• Saudis Slash Main Oil Price to Rare Discount as Market Dives (Bloomberg) 

Riyadh is reportedly considering increasing the export capacity by two million barrels, which could take years and billions of dollars to complete.

The blockade of Hormuz during the US-Iran war this year shut in some 12 million barrels of capacity, greatly reducing Saudi Arabia’s export volumes, although higher prices resulting from that closure helped Riyadh effectively break even on the balance.

Europe

Romania races to unlock EU funds before August deadline

Romania’s acting Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan is planning to summon an extraordinary session of parliament in late July to push through nine stalled recovery-plan laws before an August 31 EU deadline, Romania Insider reports. Six of the bills are considered essential, each tied to between €770 million and €972 million in financing, with more than €4.5 billion in grants riding on their passage, according to Bolojan. 

Because the caretaker government cannot issue emergency ordinances or stake its survival on a confidence vote, parliament is the only route left to unlock the money.

The stakes reach well beyond that tranche. By some estimates, Romania has absorbed just 44% of the €29 billion originally available, with €8.7 billion now at risk of being lost for good—on top of a €500 million forfeiture from its third payment request and a roughly €7 billion cut in last year’s renegotiation.

Latin America

Colombian president-elect suspends handover process

Colombia’s President-elect Abelardo de la Espriella suspended the official transition process with outgoing President Gustavo Petro on July 7, accusing Petro of planning a coup, although he provided no evidence to back the accusation. Petro has refused to recognize the result of the election, alleging—also without evidence—that the vote was tainted by fraud.

NBC News reports that Trump-aligned de la Espriella called on Colombia’s armed forces to honor their constitutional oath and urged the international community to monitor the August 7 inauguration. 

EU observers and the Carter Center had certified the vote as transparent and fully traceable.

Markets have largely taken the spat in stride. The peso has held near 3,350 to the dollar, and Colombian bonds have not come under significant pressure, suggesting investors still expect an orderly transfer of power. The incoming government’s promises of spending cuts, lower taxes, and a pro-investment policy shift continue to underpin that relative calm, although a contested inauguration would raise the country’s risk premium, the Rio Times reports.

What We’re Reading

Chinese companies ‘inject $1.3bn into Nigeria’s lithium processing in two years’ (Premium Times)

Benin billionaire’s Parakou dry port begins operations after a decade (Billionaires Africa)

Sierra Leone fishermen say illegal Chinese fishing is threatening livelihoods (BBC)

Ugandan farmers to challenge $5.6bn pipeline in UK lawsuit (Bloomberg)

Angola seeks to raise about $320mn in nation’s biggest IPO (Bloomberg)

Investors pile in on Tanzania’s TZS 288.7bn T-Bill auction (Streamline)

Acwa Power to build 230MW power plant in Mauritania (AGBI)

Myanmar leader to meet ASEAN foreign ministers this weekend (Reuters)

Thai court approves $12bn in emergency government borrowing (Bloomberg)

Thailand and Malaysia resolve seafood exports spat (Bloomberg)

LG to invest $1bn in Vietnam chip plant (Nikkei)

Vietnam considers building more coal plants as Mideast War chokes LNG supply (Reuters)

US president says he will remove Syria from the state sponsor of terrorism list (Al Jazeera)

Stalled subsea cable projects threaten Middle East digital ambitions (FT)

Gulf oil companies poised to raise debt to fund expansion plans (Zawya)

Lukashenko says Belarus will not join Putin’s war in Ukraine (FT)

Poland’s zloty hits 19-month low ahead of rate decision (Reuters)

Czech lawmakers override veto of bill boosting government’s spending power (Reuters)

Moldova’s Sandu names Osmochescu acting prime minister (Reuters) 

North Macedonia’s higher deficit target presents risk to debt trajectory (Fitch Ratings) 

Dominican Republic’s $750mn green bond heavily oversubscribed (Rio Times)  

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