🌍 Frontier Markets News, November 28th 2025

Africa

Guinea-Bissau’s president deposed in coup

Just hours before results from last weekend’s presidential election were due to be announced, Guinea-Bissau’s President Umaro Sissoco Embaló was ousted in a military coup, CNN reports. Shortly afterwards, Major General Horta N’Tam was sworn in as Guinea-Bissau’s transitional president, cementing the military’s takeover of the government. 

Both Embaló and opposition challenger Fernando Dias had claimed victory in last weekend’s poll, which the new military leadership claims was “manipulated” by politicians and a “well-known drug lord.” The West African nation of two million is one of the world’s poorest countries and is a notorious transit hub for Latin American cocaine traffickers targeting European markets. 

The military has suspended state institutions and closed borders, drawing condemnation from international institutions. Embaló fled to Senegal shortly after the military leaders took power, the BBC reports. 

Tunisian Unrest

Thousands of demonstrators took to the streets of Tunisia’s capital this week to protest what they view as President Kais Saied’s escalating authoritarianism and mismanagement, Al Jazeera reports. The protests follow the government’s broad arrests of dissidents and journalists, as well as complaints over worsening economic conditions. 

The demonstrations come on the heels of a doctors’ strike last week and mass protests in the northern region of Gabes last month prompted by severe pollution caused by a state-run chemical plant.

Saied, who was elected in 2019, has made moves to forcefully consolidate power since 2021, including suspending parliament, arresting leaders of opposition parties and the press, suspending NGOs and freezing financial assets. 

The wave of protests has largely been met with repression, but some cracks have begun to show. Prominent lawyer and dissident Sonia Dahmani was freed this week after a-year-and-a-half of imprisonment, and the government pardoned a man sentenced to death in October for Facebook posts critical of the president .

Malawi’s president calls for IMF support

Malawi’s recently reelected President Peter Mutharika this week asked the IMF for critical financial support to help his government shore up the country’s troubled economy, MSN reports. During a meeting in which his team admitted the country was critically unprepared for the new planting season, Mutharika said the heavy cost of servicing Malawi’s debts was exacerbating other economic problems including shortages of food, fuel and foreign exchange.

The deepening economic woes, marked by 28% annual inflation and sovereign debt expected to surpass 80% of GDP by the end of 2025, present a considerable challenge for Mutharika’s 24-member Cabinet. The new executive body has already drawn sharp criticism from civil society groups and international partners for loyalist bloat, including several ministers with past or ongoing corruption and abuse-of-office charges.

Asia

Pakistan-Afghanistan tensions reignite

Afghan leaders have vowed to retaliate after claiming Pakistan launched air and drone strikes on its territory that killed 10 people, CBS reports. The strikes, which followed a suicide bombing in the Pakistani city of Peshawar a day earlier, threaten to rekindle tensions between the two countries that exploded into a brief but deadly conflict in October.

While neither side appears eager to engage in a war, experts expect to see continued flare-ups between the two countries, Bloomberg reports. After the strikes in Afghanistan on Tuesday, Pakistan’s defense minister Khawaja Asif denied targeting civilians, but said he anticipated the situation would worsen until regional actors intervened.

Sanctions slow trade at Kazakhstan-Russia border to a trickle

Trade flows from China to Russia appear to have been severely impeded by heightened sanctions related to Russia’s war on Ukraine. Thousands of trucks carrying Chinese goods to Russia are stalled at the Kazakh border, Kyiv Post reports.

Trade on the popular route from Kazakhstan to Russia has been slowed for at least a month as Kazakhstan ramps up scrutiny of cargo. Transportation and logistics companies estimate that up to a quarter of shipments originating in China are stalled at the border, Moscow Times reports.

Some logistics companies see the delays as a sign that Kazakhstan is more strictly enforcing Western sanctions against Russia, and suggest some cargo is being diverted to alternate routes as a result, Russian newspaper Kommersant reports.

Middle East

Saudi Aramco considers substantial asset sales 

Saudi Arabian oil giant Saudi Aramco is considering selling some of its oil export facilities, storage terminals and real estate portfolio assets, Bloomberg reports. According to bankers involved in the discussions, the potential sell-off could net Aramco some $10 billion.

Aramco, under pressure to raise cash, has already sold some assets this year, including gas processing facilities, and was earlier reported to be considering selling some gas-fired power plants. Aramco investors have been suffering, most notably in May, when the firm was forced to cut its dividend payout by a third, citing “global trade dynamics” and “economic uncertainty” as the rationale for adopting a more defensive posture.

Lower-than-anticipated oil prices, and cost overruns on ‘megaprojects’ such as the futuristic city Neom, have pushed Saudi Arabia’s 2025 deficit higher than expected, prompting the finance ministry to upwardly revise its deficit estimates for 2026 as well.

Oman ‘set for strengthening growth’

Oman’s economy is showing “strong resilience to global uncertainty” and growing robustly, supported by non-oil GDP growth and low inflation, according to an IMF report published this week. The multilateral expects Oman’s fiscal performance to continue to improve over the coming years, and forecasts public debt will decline in the medium term.

• Oman signs agreement with Airbus for its first communications satellite (Reuters)

The IMF said the country’s progress on its “Vision 2040” program to invest in non-oil sectors has driven a “strong economic expansion” that presents opportunities to boost productivity and enhance private sector involvement in the economy. IMF analysts applauded Oman’s financial authorities for their “fiscal prudence” and “restraint” in managing public finances, and described the public investment plan as well-balanced with the private sector.

Europe

European Parliament calls for stronger action against Hungary 

EU leaders raised the pressure on Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán this week, approving a report critical of the country’s government that detailed concerns over the country’s respect for democracy and the rule of law, EU News reports. In a vote on Tuesday, members of the European Parliament urged the European Council to fully implement “Article-7“, which provides for the suspension of voting rights by member states in violation of the EU’s fundamental values. 

Approving the report is the firmest stance Europe’s parliament has taken since proceedings over Hungary’s alleged erosion of democracy began in 2018. The EU’s report also highlighted the increased dissemination of AI-generated political content favorable to Orbán in the runup to Hungary’s elections in April.

Recent opinion polls show Orbán narrowing a wide opposition lead after his Fidesz party increased election-related spending. Fidesz has pulled within 10 percentage points of opposition leader Peter Magyar’s Tisza party. 

What We’re Reading

Senegal’s debt figures improve after updating economic calculation (Reuters)

Cameroon opposition leader flees to Gambia after contested election (AP)

CAR signs fresh peace deal with rebel group (Barrons)

Mozambique grants 30-year concession to state firms for LNG facilities, pipeline (Reuters)

CNN investigation shows Tanzania police fatally shooting protesters, signs of mass graves (CNN)

Zimbabwe’s Mnangagwa reshuffles top military command in move to cement power (Zimbabwe Mail)

Angola resolves $1 billion JPMorgan loan conundrum (Business Insider Africa)

Sri Lankan opposition rallies in first major protest against Dissanayake government (Kare11) 

Indonesia resists US trade deal ‘poison pill’ (FT) 

Uzbekistan launches push to sharply grow tourism by 2030 (Gazeta) 

Kyrgyzstan authorities detain opposition figures ahead of snap election (Reuters) 

Syrian sectarian killings spark unrest (Reuters)

Bahrain downgraded on challenging fiscal and debt dynamics (S&P)

Abu Dhabi’s GSU to launch $1bn energy projects in Yemen (Reuters)

Iraq faces public uproar over ‘missing $1.9bn’ (The New Arab)

Turkey jails journalist deemed critical of President Erdoğan (Balkan Insight) 

Serbia sets 50-day deadline for sale of Russian oil companies (Balkan Insight) 

US banks slash Argentina bailout plan (WSJ)  

Bolivia’s new president plans to scrap taxes and borrow money (AP) 

Paraguay expects inflation to fall (Bloomberg) 

US designates Venezuela’s Maduro as member of foreign terrorist organization (CNN) 

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